Predict Research produces and supports rigorous, data-driven analysis of prediction markets — how they work, when they're accurate, and what they reveal about the future. We collaborate with academics, analysts, and institutions to advance the science of forecasting.
PREDICT RESEARCH
PREDICT RESEARCH · 2026
Predict Research Team
We analyze minute-level Predict pricing across the NYC Democratic primary and general election, tracing how markets weighted behavioral signals before pricing converged on the eventual outcome.
PREDICT RESEARCH · 2025
Predict Research Team
We compare predictive performance of consensus estimates to implied pricing from Predict inflation markets, finding meaningfully lower MAE during major shocks vs. traditional forecasts.
FEDERAL RESERVE · 2026
Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, Jonathan H. Wright
Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of Predict market-implied forecasts against survey- and model-based benchmarks.
2026
Sumin Kim, Minjae Kim, Jihoon Kwon et al.
Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are tied to natural-language descriptions. We propose a hybrid two-stage causal screener for risk attribution.
2026
Sumin Kim, Jihoon Kwon, Yoon Kim et al.
Mention markets — where contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a public event — yield calibrated probabilistic forecasts of keyword-mention outcomes.
RESEARCH THEMES
Predict Research professionals organize the events of the world into narratives; our curating brains still need the narrative.
Examining the technical mechanics of how prediction markets operate, including market design and structure, order flow, liquidity, and trading counterparty dynamics.
Evaluating the comparative performance of prediction market forecasts relative to alternative forecasting methods such as polls, expert opinions, consensus, and statistical models.
COLLABORATION
Share drafts, ideas, or collaboration requests. We prioritize concise, evidence-led writeups with clear signals.
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